Bet win probability estimation, setting the money to put into bet
Stake matrix should be in use, there are categories with external indicators which influencing on the final outcome in terms of the probability of win. Stake in play should be estimated taking into account clear criteria that lowering the risk of lost. Therefore, when choosing the amount of invested money, bellow’s categories should be taken into consideration. Detail tips creation standard work is here WiadomośCi sportowe:
For Stake 1-3 – No strong evidence for advantage of one side opponent, no way to verify found information. Betting on “Public Experts from TV”. The tipster’s faith in positive result. Referring to the Predicting win of visiting opponents. Faith in change after a a lot of defeats. Public info about team injured players has been available for several days. Friendship match for noting. Betting based only on dropped odds without checking the reason. Betting amateur level leagues – out of top30 based on FiFA ranking.
For stakes 4-6 – Placing a Bet on event which don’t have conditions described in above category stakes 1-3. Checked and confirmed missing of 2 key players in one opponent. Betting for host victory. Analysis of previous games looking for conditions of series of draws or “connected” matches. If H2H upcoming events looks to be fixed game or “connected” bet a bet adequately.
For Stakes 7-10: Confirmed missing of 5 and more key players from one opponent. Game for high stake. Events from top global leagues. Last minutes team news to situation into match squad 1hour before kick off (ex. Team trainer decision to save half of the strongest players). Proofed circumstances described in previous category stakes.
Confirmed lack of more than 6 players from squad. “Letting go” of the game. Fulfilled requirements for previous stakes.
It’s important to remind, check constantly H2H results between opponents. Exist Teams that have a friendly relation with each other in the way of taking back particular matches. It can be seen by analysing historical games, where specific outocmes cyclically can happen. If we suspect such a result, the match have to be removed or from the other hand – just play accordingly.
Implementation conditions above and keeping consistency in betting, you are lowering the risk of lost and your chances for winning are incomparably higher.
Placing a bet
The final step of the releasing a good analysis is, of course, placing real money the previously estimated stakes. You have to be fast when evidences found is really crucial and you are estimating to bet with stake 10. Take into account to stay one step ahead of Bookies in the race for really valuable tips. In the worst case, the bookmaker will drop odds by 90% on the event from the offer. It’s good practice to act quickly, looking for events no matter of odds changes, have accounts in different bookmakers and pick this bookmaker who forgot with the odds reduction. Nevertheless, remember that the beauty of sport stick in the fact that sometimes unexpected losts occur. Never introduce all capital into one strong favourite. Recommended methodology is to split your money and invest at once 20% from total account, so in this case value of 30% of your total money on account is in line to stake 10 in our standard work of creation valuable tips.
Analyze different points of view for the same match. There’s a lot of examples when Users evaluate the same match differently and can indicate a different outcome. In extreme cases match results are set before start of event (fixed games) and having this info Tipsters can place a bet appropriately. Personal Tipsters situations also have huge impact on stake and winner estimation. Let’s imagine that some people need fast greate money, they’re lost a lot in previous slips, they need to improve their betting statistic, so in this situations they are willing to set the biggest stake and bet much, much more that in “normal” circumstances.
Home, Away handicap
Target of Handicap tips is to equalize the chances between different-class competitors by adding points to the match result. In same time, it causes a simillar change of outcome. There are 2 kind of types of handicaps: Asian and classic called AH and EH. Asian is safer, becasue in game output of a draw, money returns to gambler. In the classic the previously selected # of points is added to the result of the game, which means that a draw is possible and thus a losing of stakes.Bookmakers offer a very wide range of handicaps, but the question is how to choose their values when placing a bets.
Trying understand the answer of this problem, the standard work for creating valuable tips described on WiadomośCi sportowe should be used. When you find a highly reliable, valuable event with a bid under 1.5, it is worth make higher it by adding Asian Handicap -1. At the same time, more risky games should be protected with a different handicap, e.g. +1, providing additional safety margin. The next important goal of this step is to provide the odds more than 2, because it effectively growing up the Yield. Other handicap values expose you to not needed big rish, so they are not proposed.At the end, in the case of match between the same quaiity level opponents the AH is giving you a thin propotion to be on the winning side or receive return of invested money.
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